Bitcoin has spent most of the time during 2019 consolidating in a very narrow range. When we zoom out, we’re able to face a crude reality which doesn’t show solid recovery signs on the near term: Price is dealing below the Weekly Bias (bearish) Cloud. Price is coiling in a sandwich between the 200 SMA and the 200 EMA. Volume is following a decreasing trend usually seen in consolidations, not breakouts.
All in all, the macro bias remains bearish until we are able to either:
- Retest current lows with significant volume and significative bounce up.
- Draw new lower lows opening up the doors for a (potential) capitulation event.
- Or paint a solid weekly break above $6000.
We’ll take whatever the option happening first. But in the meantime we’ll be patiently juicing the long consolidation that awaits in front of us.
On the fundamental side, we’re getting great news that usually would cause a pump effect in a bull market.
- The Lighting Network is being showcased as a working alternative to handle payments in real time.
- The Bitcoin Network Usage is showing positive adoption, even though price action is not (yet) reflecting that.
- The Institutionals are lining up multiple products to attract both: the retail public and the large funds that need proper vehicles to allocate crypto investments.
Long Term Bias
The long term plot is still taking action in Bear Territory. That implies that we are favoring long term fiat positions and that we adjust medium term position sizing to that market state. The long term chart hints good chances of exploring ‘unfinished business’ at lower prices and a long consolidation period moving forward. A solid break above $6,000 is what we need to shift the current long term bias.
Short term Bias
The short term plan looks well enclosed in a range play between $3200-$4200. Even though the market is gearing towards the down side, we’re ready to play potential bounces up too. Our Sell Zones stand around $3900 and if that gets penetrated we see nice chances to build short positions around $4000 area. The Rebuy zones that interest us are located around $3650, $3450 and $3250.